Here you are trying to teach a man to fish and all these commenters just want you to give them a fish- “Sven evaluate xyz company please!” Personally, I could watch 20 more videos from Sven just on intrinsic value and terminal multiples in hopes of learning to analyze stocks for myself. You’re seriously handing us gold, Sven. Thank you.
@@Value-Investing Thank you also from me! I donate 10% of my income every month, or the other way round: I keep 90% for myself. There are so many good things worth supporting and I am grateful that I am doing well.
right.. except I don't know why Sven put in such overly optimistic growth numbers (considering the intensified EV competition, 2021 is gonna get harder for Tsla, I tell you). For me worst case scen is more like 6x overvalued!!
What a kind person you are Sven. And also smart at investing!:) you aren't donating, you are investing to make a better world for some children. Thank you
I'm sorry but I think those Tesla assumptions are way off. 11 million vehicles per year is more than the two highest selling car manufacturers in the world (Toyota and Volkswagon sell about 10.5 million vehicles per year). To expect Tesla to be the highest selling car manufacturer in the world is a pretty crazy assumption given the amount of competition that is going to be in the EV market over the next 5 or so years. Tesla's current profit margin is less than a typical car company like Toyota and their revenue growth for the last 2 years was 31% which is about 15% to 16% per year, and you expect them to grow 40% per year for the next 5 to 10 years?
@@m4758406 and with co2 certificates which probably will not be sold so much next year as other car manufacturers have also meanwhile electric cars in quite some amount sold
GM and FCA bought tremendous amount of CO2 credits over the last 5 years.. these are relatively at 100% margin (selling EV is not for producing credits I allegedly suppose..). Now, this pace can continue for other 3-4 years I think while them are cutting this expenditure selling their own EV vehicles (FCA to come first, GM is still behind for full integration). How can again Tesla keep that pace for awesome financial growth ? Problem here is that investor are simply put a line trend to predict the future.. time to short tesla in 2022-2023 i think
Besides giving wonderful and in depth explanation/suggestions about quality long term stocks, the work of charity is what I highly appreciate. Love and respect from Germany Regards Dr. Hassan
Dear Sven You provided good content as always. Regarding Unilever your dislike for management is clouding your judgement I believe. Maybe it was not in the best interest of the shareholder what happened with the Brazillian boys but you have to remember that Unilever is working towards a model where they can make money and not destroy the planet at the same time. That is what management meant with leaving Unilever alone. Looking at the track record of 3G they have no real interest that align with the mission that Unilever is on. Their mission is making as much money as possible and leave the earth problems to the people that will come after us. You talked about (too much?) debt, don't forget that Unilever was almost taken over because they had so LITTLE debt that UNA became a takeover target for companies like 3G where using financial trickery they could have used the low debt level of UNA to finance its own takeover. Anyway your dislike for management should have blown over a while ago because that was done under the previous CEO not the current one. Becoming British will also ensure that shareholder interest become more important going forward since that is the law in the UK. As for facts: yes Tesla was born in Croatia but it he was born in an ethnic Serbian village in Croatia (Tesla was Serbian not Croatian but I'm sure you knew that :) )
Hi Sven, I've been starting a Kroger position in the low 30s. I really like the management and the acquisitions they have made to adapt to e-commerce. Also, great in-house brands and well-run stores. Debt is a bit high but they have stable and good cash flows. Low payout ratios and good dividend growth. I'm hoping it gets into the low-mid 20s as I would get more aggressive buying it!
Chef Sven delivers master class on how the numbers can be cooked. Pretty certain financial analysts can calibrate model input parameters to justify almost any valuation...
Hey Sven.. I stumbled into your video through RUclips suggestion in my feed.. I happen to be Unilever shareholder myself since 5 years and I understand and respect your analysis but I kind of disagree on some points.. I hate their management 😊 so this we have in common 😊 especially on the acquisition front.. but I look at Unilever as a company that has figured out logistics and supply chain in an extraordinary manner; they have a wide moat in my opinion.. think about it, for more than 100 years now they are just selling shampoo and soap which are staples. And no other company was able to displace them or to take shelf space from them in good times or in bad times.. they are among the few companies that make money for retailers as they actually give big box some margin, especially compared to P&G which sucks the blood of retailers.. that is why retailers have to carry their products, and they were able to infiltrate emerging markets much better than P&G.. is Unilever another Tesla? Of course not.. but the business of Unilever doesn't need gangbuster growth, it is stable even during COVID.. it's free cash flow is able to grow 6 to 7 % per year just driven by economies of scale and by emerging markets where they mostly dominate, add on top of it 3 to 4% dividend yield, this brings the expected return to 9 to 11% per annum.. not bad for a bond like stock where you can say buy and forget
@@Value-Investing yeah they were busy buying dollar shave club for a billion!! really obsessed with M&A... but come on you are being too hard on them :-) in the last 20 years they grew EBITDA by 6% and CF by 7% compounded annually, that's not so horrible for a mature business with 3.5% dividend, even though I agree that these recent acquisitions are mostly unproductive..
It's funny to see Tesla as a Buy on your Channel. But Cashflow models are not really made for companies like Tesla, minor changes in the numbers lead to a completely different intrinsic value. And who really knows their growth rate in 10 years? For me that's just guessing what could happen. And the traditional car makers are valued with a PE ratio between 5 and 8... just as a comparison. But thanks for your content on RUclips and your platform. Merry Christmas.
cash flows is supposed to be for EVERY COMPANIES. you can't pay yourself with revenues. it's what aswath damodaran taught me in a video. check him out :p. but i do understand your point of view.
Great Analysis of Cisco. I was looking to buy stocks of them because I thought they were undervalued. You helped me to get the clear view and buy Cisco during the next weeks. I'm also happy that I stayed away from Unilever because I didn't like their balance sheet. You confirmed my worries on Unilever.
Your videos are so underrated! This is so much more valuable than other RUclipsrs in the Finance space that I follow (just as kind of entertainment). Love the videos Sven, you too a Merry Christmas and a Healty and Happy New Year! 🤗
The best Christmas gift: having your blessing on investing in Tesla did boost my day 🙂 I just entered in July and later more on the fall, still enough to be already up by 60%. Tesla is fantastic!! And even more I value you as a person Sven, you truly have a big heart and your honesty is superlative. Merry Christmas my friend!
Thank you so much for making these helpful Videos and by donating the money you are making. You are educating us and assisting in the educating donation recipients by making their lives better. Helping both ends.
Sven, thank you for covering Unilever and Tesla. I know virtually nothing about either. I certainly didn't know Warren Buffett was interested in buying Nestle outright. Food for thought. Tesla is a stock benefiting from the easy central bank money going into the market and pushing up assets prices. Without it Tesla loses it's market cap and probably folds under the competition from Toyota, Renault, Nissan and others in the electric vehicle market.
Wow, so Tesla isn’t as overpriced as I had thought it was. If it keeps up the 40% growth it’s actually a fair price. 40% is a huge if, of course. Definitely not a buy at these prices. Thanks, Sven. I always love your content.
yes, if they keep growing at 40% per year, Tesla is fairly priced! But why do people just hear the stock price and not focus on the necessary growth rate is beyond me.
I've been scrolling down the comments to spot a potential Serbian/Croatian fighting over Tesla's nationality. Why nothing? Is this an actual rational community not interested in small off-topic quarrels? Ok then... :)
Thanks Sven, one of the most logical finance youtubers out there! Do you think BABA can navigate the anti trust issues it faces? Stock is looking dirt cheap right now, I have a small position looking to increase it, but the CCP worries me, however I just can’t see them ruining a company like BABA? Keep up the good work!!
Thank you Sven for the financial knowledge, insight & analysis that you provide us with and also big thank you for supporting the Nepal school charity which is where I am from. Happy holidays to you and your family.
Amazing channel - my best wishes for you to be remembered in the league of Charlie Munger and Warren as you have opened the world of value investing to common man like me!
Hi Sven ! Many thanks for your videos which I find very instructive ! I wish you all the best for the 2021 and happy Christmas (also for your loved-ones) ! Ciao Sven !
Stable companies like nestle don't usually have market irrationality that offers a price below intrinsic value. In that case, is it alright to buy it at a fair value. Also high roic businesses like loreal and Pepsi always trade at a premium but also consistently justify the premium. In that case, is it alright to buy at a premium. Are there exceptions in Ben Graham's principles.
Sven is very right about Unilever management. Yes they are not good and they almost always promote from within. It is one of the things I really don't like about Unilever, almost this attitude of we are too big to fail. However, they are very focussed on shareholders and creating value for them. I have seen this first hand as I worked for them for a couple of years. They are cutting expenses and costs left, right and Centre. Moving jobs to low cost countries and they will most definitely maintain the dividend. In 2015 they moved to a zero based budget. Whilst keeping this in mind for me, I don't mind a slow growth company that is stable and is able to maintain a dividend payout. It keeps a portion of my funds in a well anchored ship and I can collect my dividend coupon. I agree Nestle is the better company but I don't want the currency risk.
I felt compelled to go and write down my research after watching this video. So i have done it and now i do not feel like i fully agree with Sven apart from the points about management. Following are my reasons to disagree: 1. There has been a change in management i.e. Alan Jope taking over from Paul Polson in 2019; Alan has led the company into a single unified governance structure which although means nothing to shareholders from a economic value. It does however make the company able to enact mergers/de-mergers quicker i.e. leaner corporate structure. 2. The debt has certainly increased BUT, Unilever is a world class company with A1/A+ credit rating and in 2019 their Debt/EBIT was 1.9x. This is not far from their competitors in Nestle (1.4x) and P&G (3.5x) 3. They have very strong exposure to Emerging markets and have consistently bought strong brands in this space. In India they purchased Horlicks from GSK which is the market leader in malted drinks so they are directly competing with Nestle where they are not the dominant player and in others Nestle fails to even mark a dent to them. 4. Although the dividend payments are very high, I think they will maintain this and if anything continue to increase it. The CAGR for the past 5 years is 10% which is fantastic if you want a solid dividend paying stock. 5. Finally, I did valuations based on Ben Graham model, DCF and historical PB and basically the stock is fairly valued with a decent upside. It is not going to be a growth play but the liklihood of it being value/dividend trap is quite low. Good to debate and have different views always - thank you for your video, it really lit a fire under my a** to write down what i have been meaning to do for the past few weeks.
@P J well wasn't American express one of buffets greatest investments when they where about to go bankrupt? at the time that banks looked their worse because of the crisis? The problem with baba is that I don't know how potential delisting will mean for an investor they will get back from a fine or something else China throws at them but delisting would be a problem because I don't know the consequences...
Every year I learn more and more about how little I know about investing :) But at least Your internet is slower, so maybe one day I’ll catch up :D Thank You, Sven! Merry Christmas!
Great charity work Sven. The more I make in my portfolio the more I will give. All the best to you and your family. Get yourself a TeSSSla for Christmas
Hi Sven, I'm just discovering your method and I'm starting to get on board with it, but I'm a bit turned off by how much the "intrinsic value" calculation has changed for Tesla since 2018. Obviously the company has done well, but you previously predicted a valuation of $22 billion for 2020, and now you're saying it's fairly valued at 700 billion+? Have the fundamentals really changed by 30x? Was the old calculation wrong? I'm confused.
no, I am just trying to explain what is priced in :-)) I don't need all the bad negative energy from people if I say Tesla is worth $32 :-))) I learned my lesson. Do you hear the sarcasm when I say it needs to grow 60% per year :-))))
@@Value-Investing I see, so some of the enthusiasm is priced in. To be clear I'm not a dogmatic tesla bull, just an index fund investor exploring the world of value investing. Wasn't trying to harp on the mis-call of Tesla, cause who could've predicted the madness we've seen
Sven has been very kind to Tesla :-) Looking at Tesla, interesting to see that: 1. They have a book value of $7B (over a market cap of $630B), so strictly no margin of safety from the assets 2. They produce a $2B FCF but issued $7B in shares this year, but OK dilution is rather small on a $630B valuation 3. Out of the $2B FCF, they also issued $1.3B in shares to management as stock based compensation, consistently paying very high amount to their management. So if someone is really getting compensated here, it's not the shareholder 4. Their growth has been staggering if you compare to the 2010 numbers, but since 2018 their revenue has increased from $21B to $28B, that's 15% growth only, not 40% (although I imagine 40% could be possible as they introduce enough new models in the future and all are success) So if everything clicks for Tesla and other car brands are unable to react, which would be quite spectacular, it could be a double, triple over the next 10 years (that's 10-13% return). If only one thing does not work well, that can be a -50% to -90%.... Very speculative in my opinion, all based on staggering growth forever :-)
Hi Sven, may I know why the total sales figure 2018 which available from the annual report of 2020 and annual report of 2019 is different? Thank you in advance.
Please do an analysis on ATAX . Their dividend yeal is over 11 percent! And their debt to asset ratio is also very low. Why isn't this stock more expensive? Am I missing something ?
Hi Sven, in your Tesla valuation you remove all cash flows and keep only the last one with the explanation that Tesla won't pay dividends. For me this is something I have never seen before. I'm kind of puzzled over this calculation. If I remember correctly in your previous video you also calculated stocks where the company pays no dividend and didn't remove the cashflows of years 1 to 9. Also, how to handle the case where a company does not pay either nothing at all or 100% of cash flows as dividends, but has a payout ratio of lets say 50%? Would be glad if you could shed some light on this. Many thanks!
Can you explain why you exclude consistent dividends and consistent shares buyback in this value calculation? Imo they are SUPER important when looking at this kind of behemount. +2% dividends and -4% shares outstanding play out BIG on the long run, wouldn't it?
Hey Sven! Are you loading up on BABA? what are your thoughts? Buy, Sell, Hold? Just wondering what your perspective is, and this video could get you some Juicy views.
25:28 who benefits most from technology is an interesting thought makes me immediatley think about Henry the navegator A Portoguese who invented Deep sea navegation what lead to new trade routes to Asia while Portugal and while Henry's ideas led to an golden age in Portugal The Dutch took the spice trade over after an century from the Portoguese simply because of its close proximity to the North and Baltic sea what use to controlled by the Hanseatic league the main market for the Spice trade.
Sven thanks 4 the analysis. Why r u only considering dividends as a benefit to investors? If a company is a growth stock and as u phrased it invest every dym in growing the business, than the company shear price is higher. Why doesn't high shear price counts as return to investors?
Ugh Unilever was the absolute worst client I had when I was in consulting. Never met so disrespectful people before or ever since. I don’t even like to think back of the time I spent with their tax teams. As for Tesla, I think the prononciation is not the only thing that Elon gets wrong. 😂 Happy Christmas Sven and looking forward the videos in 2021!
Never worked for Unilever but I am Dutch and worked for other major Dutch Corparations I can sort of feel what you are saying they maked you feel little and small by constant nagging about little things what are not so related to the bigger picture and contiuos keep talking Dutch even thou there are non Dutch speakers in te room.
I too worked for UL as a consultant. I had a completely different experience and found most people quite friendly. It always comes down to people when you interact with them. Although they have a tendency to think they are too big to fail and there is a sense of laziness which i found extremely frustrating.
What are your thoughts on Intel? Watched your previous video on it but Apple have created their own chip and Microsoft may start in house chips since then?
So kroger looks like a pretty good buy by all metrics, except 1. If you look at the charts on a 15 year scale their stock price never really goes up, I mean not by much more than inflation. I am new to investing and I keep hearing about kroger being undervalued but I just cant imagine a company with no plans to offer any more services making enough money to move the bar. Am I wrong?
A question for you: Why Buffett doesn't pay any dividend to create a cash flow for his investors ? 1-BRK is not the same as 20 years ago and he says it himself. They can't grow too much to beat the market. He suggests s&p index fund because if he can't pass the index so why people choose him? (He literally says these in the letters btw) 2-Yes he is buying back stocks or investing in new businesses. But BRK has huge huge cash, they can do investments and buyback stocks and distribute a 2-4% dividend easily ! 3- Why he is limiting BRK with book value ? There are many companies that you need to value with book value but their book value is 3-4. Why he is limiting BRK book value 100%-120% ? He can easily announce dividend and in this zero interest rate times,more and more people would buy BRK shares knowing it's gonna have good returns in the future even with the book value 150%-200%. 4- He always thinks shares as people use them to do grocery. If I'm the owner of share i need to sell my shares to create a cash flow. But I wouldn't, if I received a dividend payment, even paying some tax. It would be great if u make a new video about BRK. Thanks
Sven, are you so long Tesla? 40% growth rate year on year while the last 2 years, they didn't even grow 20%... Also only way Tesla is increasing free cash flow is due to increasing outstanding shares. Sales in europe are dropping, competition is catching up on ev's. Apple may enter EV market as well. But I cannot blame you putting those crazy numbers as Tesla's share only go up. Great analysis on Unilever and Neste
Hello Sven, I really like your videos and thank you for the Excel templates! Is there a reason why you don´t take the numbers directly from the annual reports? I have tried to calculate the intrinsic value for two companies in Norway. that is EQNR (Equinor) and VEI (Veidekke). I have tried to use FCF and dividend yield in the formula and I feel like I get the wrong value (most likely me doing something wrong). If it's not to much to ask can you make a video on calculating the intrinsic value for those two companies? Again thank you for the amazing videos and free templates!
Bought Kroger, going nicely. Nestle beaten down from CHF 104 TO 98.5. Hopefully in the longer run will come back up to give 6% overall. Any negative news on nestle?
As usual, amazing analysis. You are teaching folks for free what others won't for money. You are one of the most genuine voices on this platform.
Wow, thank you!
I would agree completely
Great Sven. Thank you very much for all your efforts
Here you are trying to teach a man to fish and all these commenters just want you to give them a fish- “Sven evaluate xyz company please!” Personally, I could watch 20 more videos from Sven just on intrinsic value and terminal multiples in hopes of learning to analyze stocks for myself. You’re seriously handing us gold, Sven. Thank you.
Over 50k donated - thats amazing, Sven!👏
Thank You for Your kindness!
Thanks to you!!!
@@Value-Investing Thank you also from me! I donate 10% of my income every month, or the other way round: I keep 90% for myself. There are so many good things worth supporting and I am grateful that I am doing well.
"If there's anything I say right about the stock is the pronunciation" I love this guy
hahahaha, thanks!
First video I've seen about Tesla that you actually see some intrinsic value calculations. Great video Sven!
right.. except I don't know why Sven put in such overly optimistic growth numbers (considering the intensified EV competition, 2021 is gonna get harder for Tsla, I tell you).
For me worst case scen is more like 6x overvalued!!
What a kind person you are Sven. And also smart at investing!:) you aren't donating, you are investing to make a better world for some children. Thank you
Thanks you for watching!
I'm sorry but I think those Tesla assumptions are way off. 11 million vehicles per year is more than the two highest selling car manufacturers in the world (Toyota and Volkswagon sell about 10.5 million vehicles per year). To expect Tesla to be the highest selling car manufacturer in the world is a pretty crazy assumption given the amount of competition that is going to be in the EV market over the next 5 or so years. Tesla's current profit margin is less than a typical car company like Toyota and their revenue growth for the last 2 years was 31% which is about 15% to 16% per year, and you expect them to grow 40% per year for the next 5 to 10 years?
@@m4758406 and with co2 certificates which probably will not be sold so much next year as other car manufacturers have also meanwhile electric cars in quite some amount sold
tesla true value probably around 100 max
It’s possible. But it’s a fact in the eyes of Tesla “investors”.
Sven is short on Tesla
GM and FCA bought tremendous amount of CO2 credits over the last 5 years.. these are relatively at 100% margin (selling EV is not for producing credits I allegedly suppose..). Now, this pace can continue for other 3-4 years I think while them are cutting this expenditure selling their own EV vehicles (FCA to come first, GM is still behind for full integration). How can again Tesla keep that pace for awesome financial growth ?
Problem here is that investor are simply put a line trend to predict the future.. time to short tesla in 2022-2023 i think
Too much respect knowing about your donation to charity efforts. Your channel is still undervalued massively.
Calls on $SVEN
Besides giving wonderful and in depth explanation/suggestions about quality long term stocks, the work of charity is what I highly appreciate.
Love and respect from Germany
Regards
Dr. Hassan
thanks!
Dear Sven
You provided good content as always.
Regarding Unilever your dislike for management is clouding your judgement I believe.
Maybe it was not in the best interest of the shareholder what happened with the Brazillian boys but you have to remember that Unilever is working towards a model where they can make money and not destroy the planet at the same time. That is what management meant with leaving Unilever alone. Looking at the track record of 3G they have no real interest that align with the mission that Unilever is on.
Their mission is making as much money as possible and leave the earth problems to the people that will come after us.
You talked about (too much?) debt, don't forget that Unilever was almost taken over because they had so LITTLE debt that UNA became a takeover target for companies like 3G where using financial trickery they could have used the low debt level of UNA to finance its own takeover.
Anyway your dislike for management should have blown over a while ago because that was done under the previous CEO not the current one.
Becoming British will also ensure that shareholder interest become more important going forward since that is the law in the UK.
As for facts: yes Tesla was born in Croatia but it he was born in an ethnic Serbian village in Croatia (Tesla was Serbian not Croatian but I'm sure you knew that :) )
Hi Sven, I've been starting a Kroger position in the low 30s. I really like the management and the acquisitions they have made to adapt to e-commerce. Also, great in-house brands and well-run stores. Debt is a bit high but they have stable and good cash flows. Low payout ratios and good dividend growth.
I'm hoping it gets into the low-mid 20s as I would get more aggressive buying it!
Good choice!
Their buybacks have been amazing. They have been flat on average for years with hundreds of millions of shares less in circulation!
Re: Unilever - I use Vim almost daily. The text editor, not the detergent.
I recommend you emacs.
@@anilomjf - this means war!
VScode is the future :) (I use vim only for quick editing of configs and bash scripts )
@@JanBruunAndersen That is not possible: I am a peaceful man.
Chef Sven delivers master class on how the numbers can be cooked. Pretty certain financial analysts can calibrate model input parameters to justify almost any valuation...
God bless you, you are making money with your knowledge and time and energy and donating it to charities
Wow, thank you
Hey Sven.. I stumbled into your video through RUclips suggestion in my feed.. I happen to be Unilever shareholder myself since 5 years and I understand and respect your analysis but I kind of disagree on some points.. I hate their management 😊 so this we have in common 😊 especially on the acquisition front.. but I look at Unilever as a company that has figured out logistics and supply chain in an extraordinary manner; they have a wide moat in my opinion.. think about it, for more than 100 years now they are just selling shampoo and soap which are staples. And no other company was able to displace them or to take shelf space from them in good times or in bad times.. they are among the few companies that make money for retailers as they actually give big box some margin, especially compared to P&G which sucks the blood of retailers.. that is why retailers have to carry their products, and they were able to infiltrate emerging markets much better than P&G.. is Unilever another Tesla? Of course not.. but the business of Unilever doesn't need gangbuster growth, it is stable even during COVID.. it's free cash flow is able to grow 6 to 7 % per year just driven by economies of scale and by emerging markets where they mostly dominate, add on top of it 3 to 4% dividend yield, this brings the expected return to 9 to 11% per annum.. not bad for a bond like stock where you can say buy and forget
I just wish management will take a brake from these expensive non value added acquisitions and focus on organic growth.. but we will see
the shampoo market exploded, they didn't do much :-)
@@Value-Investing yeah they were busy buying dollar shave club for a billion!! really obsessed with M&A... but come on you are being too hard on them :-) in the last 20 years they grew EBITDA by 6% and CF by 7% compounded annually, that's not so horrible for a mature business with 3.5% dividend, even though I agree that these recent acquisitions are mostly unproductive..
It's funny to see Tesla as a Buy on your Channel. But Cashflow models are not really made for companies like Tesla, minor changes in the numbers lead to a completely different intrinsic value. And who really knows their growth rate in 10 years? For me that's just guessing what could happen. And the traditional car makers are valued with a PE ratio between 5 and 8... just as a comparison. But thanks for your content on RUclips and your platform. Merry Christmas.
cash flows is supposed to be for EVERY COMPANIES. you can't pay yourself with revenues. it's what aswath damodaran taught me in a video. check him out :p.
but i do understand your point of view.
He is just trying to use hyperbolic guesses to make sense of current valuation.
@@luismvsilva Exactly. You prove his point. Tesla has just increased revenues. So what are we talking about? It's a crazy investment
holidays mood - so I don't get angry comments :-))) Those who listen hear what I have to say :-)))
Great Analysis of Cisco. I was looking to buy stocks of them because I thought they were undervalued. You helped me to get the clear view and buy Cisco during the next weeks. I'm also happy that I stayed away from Unilever because I didn't like their balance sheet. You confirmed my worries on Unilever.
Glad it was helpful!
Merry Christmas Sven. You're one of the good ones!
Your videos are so underrated! This is so much more valuable than other RUclipsrs in the Finance space that I follow (just as kind of entertainment). Love the videos Sven, you too a Merry Christmas and a Healty and Happy New Year! 🤗
Wow, thank you!
The best Christmas gift: having your blessing on investing in Tesla did boost my day 🙂 I just entered in July and later more on the fall, still enough to be already up by 60%. Tesla is fantastic!!
And even more I value you as a person Sven, you truly have a big heart and your honesty is superlative. Merry Christmas my friend!
Be careful no matter what you think Tesla will be in the future, its in bubble territory right now.
@@jnaugy1074 like it was for Amazon years back....
my blessing? You just hear what you want to hear :-))))
@@Value-Investing You didn't know? It is different this time, Tesla is the first company with infinite value. PE ratios of 1330 always work out.
Thank you so much for making these helpful Videos and by donating the money you are making. You are educating us and assisting in the educating donation recipients by making their lives better. Helping both ends.
Sven, thank you for covering Unilever and Tesla. I know virtually nothing about either. I certainly didn't know Warren Buffett was interested in buying Nestle outright. Food for thought. Tesla is a stock benefiting from the easy central bank money going into the market and pushing up assets prices. Without it Tesla loses it's market cap and probably folds under the competition from Toyota, Renault, Nissan and others in the electric vehicle market.
look at my worst case scenario for Tesla:-)) explains it all.
Thanks Sven, sent a small donation in thanks for you giving out your spreadsheet!
Awesome, thank you!
Wow, so Tesla isn’t as overpriced as I had thought it was. If it keeps up the 40% growth it’s actually a fair price. 40% is a huge if, of course. Definitely not a buy at these prices. Thanks, Sven. I always love your content.
yes, if they keep growing at 40% per year, Tesla is fairly priced! But why do people just hear the stock price and not focus on the necessary growth rate is beyond me.
SVEN. I JUST GOT A JOB AT MORGAN STANLEY! ALL THANKS TO YOU!
Congratulations!
How?
Is that good?
We want financial independence, not jobs :D
@@jdr4674 Dont be a hater bro
@@jdr4674 we want both
Great video. Thank you Sven!
Thank you for the analysis of Kroger and thank you for teaching us (and Elon) how to pronounce 'Tesla'!
I've been scrolling down the comments to spot a potential Serbian/Croatian fighting over Tesla's nationality. Why nothing? Is this an actual rational community not interested in small off-topic quarrels? Ok then... :)
Thanks Sven, one of the most logical finance youtubers out there! Do you think BABA can navigate the anti trust issues it faces? Stock is looking dirt cheap right now, I have a small position looking to increase it, but the CCP worries me, however I just can’t see them ruining a company like BABA? Keep up the good work!!
Thank you Sven for the financial knowledge, insight & analysis that you provide us with and also big thank you for supporting the Nepal school charity which is where I am from. Happy holidays to you and your family.
Always thumbs up before I begin watching. Merry Christmas and thank your for the cisco Christmas gift
Amazing channel - my best wishes for you to be remembered in the league of Charlie Munger and Warren as you have opened the world of value investing to common man like me!
thanks, I'll do my best!
Hi Sven ! Many thanks for your videos which I find very instructive ! I wish you all the best for the 2021 and happy Christmas (also for your loved-ones) ! Ciao Sven !
Stable companies like nestle don't usually have market irrationality that offers a price below intrinsic value. In that case, is it alright to buy it at a fair value. Also high roic businesses like loreal and Pepsi always trade at a premium but also consistently justify the premium. In that case, is it alright to buy at a premium. Are there exceptions in Ben Graham's principles.
Sven is very right about Unilever management. Yes they are not good and they almost always promote from within.
It is one of the things I really don't like about Unilever, almost this attitude of we are too big to fail.
However, they are very focussed on shareholders and creating value for them. I have seen this first hand as I worked for them for a couple of years. They are cutting expenses and costs left, right and Centre. Moving jobs to low cost countries and they will most definitely maintain the dividend. In 2015 they moved to a zero based budget.
Whilst keeping this in mind for me, I don't mind a slow growth company that is stable and is able to maintain a dividend payout. It keeps a portion of my funds in a well anchored ship and I can collect my dividend coupon.
I agree Nestle is the better company but I don't want the currency risk.
I felt compelled to go and write down my research after watching this video. So i have done it and now i do not feel like i fully agree with Sven apart from the points about management. Following are my reasons to disagree:
1. There has been a change in management i.e. Alan Jope taking over from Paul Polson in 2019; Alan has led the company into a single unified governance structure which although means nothing to shareholders from a economic value. It does however make the company able to enact mergers/de-mergers quicker i.e. leaner corporate structure.
2. The debt has certainly increased BUT, Unilever is a world class company with A1/A+ credit rating and in 2019 their Debt/EBIT was 1.9x. This is not far from their competitors in Nestle (1.4x) and P&G (3.5x)
3. They have very strong exposure to Emerging markets and have consistently bought strong brands in this space. In India they purchased Horlicks from GSK which is the market leader in malted drinks so they are directly competing with Nestle where they are not the dominant player and in others Nestle fails to even mark a dent to them.
4. Although the dividend payments are very high, I think they will maintain this and if anything continue to increase it. The CAGR for the past 5 years is 10% which is fantastic if you want a solid dividend paying stock.
5. Finally, I did valuations based on Ben Graham model, DCF and historical PB and basically the stock is fairly valued with a decent upside. It is not going to be a growth play but the liklihood of it being value/dividend trap is quite low.
Good to debate and have different views always - thank you for your video, it really lit a fire under my a** to write down what i have been meaning to do for the past few weeks.
I was checking Unilever info in order to invest. Then this video showed up. Magic Sven.
Make a video for BABA don't think we will see the stock at this level ever again maybe there is a great opportunity
I bought at 160, shoulda sold at 320... it just gets worse every day.
I wish I would've bought BABA calls yesterday at the bottom. It had a nice 5% bounce from that low!
@P J you dont know NOTHING about investments!. BABA is extrordinay business. In fact, people should sell Tesla and buy BABA...
@P J well wasn't American express one of buffets greatest investments when they where about to go bankrupt? at the time that banks looked their worse because of the crisis? The problem with baba is that I don't know how potential delisting will mean for an investor they will get back from a fine or something else China throws at them but delisting would be a problem because I don't know the consequences...
and he did!! (ps: I also bought already 5d ago)
We need more valuation videos like this Sven!
thanks, will do!
Merry Christmass Sven, and thanks for sharing knowledge. All the best for 2021, you deserve it !
Happy holidays!
Thanks Sven. I'm a proud subscriber to this great channel. Merry Christmas.
Thanks!
Every year I learn more and more about how little I know about investing :) But at least Your internet is slower, so maybe one day I’ll catch up :D Thank You, Sven! Merry Christmas!
hahahaha Merry Christmas
Thank you so much Sven for sharing your knowledge. This is my favorite financial channel. Greetings from Switzerland.
My pleasure!
Thanks Sven, you give me a lot of value and inspiration.
@Value Investing With Sven Carlin, ph.D. 😂 , happy christmas!
happy holidays!
Hvala, Sven! Najbolji poklon za Božić. :) Sve najbolje!
E.J.
Jel covek razume Srpski? 😃
@@nemitv1157 Spominje da je iz Hrvatske, mislim da će razumijet i koju riječ Srpskoga :D
Sve najbolje:-)
I really enjoy learning about stocks from you, not sure if its the accent or what, but I like
So sell Unilever and buy proctor or Johnson? What about currency risk to USD?
Congrats Sven, you deserve it. With everything that has changed, amd the rapidly improving outlook would love to see a TRQ update. Merry Christmas!
Thank you for this video, Sven as well as for sharing your amazing contributions to charity! I love to see that. Happy Holidays!
Happy holidays!
Another helpful and entertaining Video. And also for you and your loved ones Merry Christmas:)
Many Thanks for this video! It answers many questions :)
Glad it was helpful!
Great charity work Sven. The more I make in my portfolio the more I will give. All the best to you and your family. Get yourself a TeSSSla for Christmas
Thank you Sven Merry Christmas you are invauble to the investment community keep up the Hard work
I started trading a few weeks ago.ade a lot of research online. Your content is by far TOP TIER!
thanks!
so you should avoid slow growers?? and what is consider slow grower
Hi Sven, I'm just discovering your method and I'm starting to get on board with it, but I'm a bit turned off by how much the "intrinsic value" calculation has changed for Tesla since 2018. Obviously the company has done well, but you previously predicted a valuation of $22 billion for 2020, and now you're saying it's fairly valued at 700 billion+? Have the fundamentals really changed by 30x? Was the old calculation wrong? I'm confused.
no, I am just trying to explain what is priced in :-)) I don't need all the bad negative energy from people if I say Tesla is worth $32 :-))) I learned my lesson. Do you hear the sarcasm when I say it needs to grow 60% per year :-))))
@@Value-Investing I see, so some of the enthusiasm is priced in. To be clear I'm not a dogmatic tesla bull, just an index fund investor exploring the world of value investing. Wasn't trying to harp on the mis-call of Tesla, cause who could've predicted the madness we've seen
So Terminal Value is a PE usually as of now, or average PE of the industry ?
Happy Holidays to you and your family! Thanks for the work you do
Great video. merry Christmas. thanks
Happy holidays!
Thank you, Sven. You are a good man.
The only channel that i put a like in advance.
Wow, thanks
I don’t understand why you add D7 to M7 and then also add N7 to it. Is that assuming dividends always?
Sven has been very kind to Tesla :-)
Looking at Tesla, interesting to see that:
1. They have a book value of $7B (over a market cap of $630B), so strictly no margin of safety from the assets
2. They produce a $2B FCF but issued $7B in shares this year, but OK dilution is rather small on a $630B valuation
3. Out of the $2B FCF, they also issued $1.3B in shares to management as stock based compensation, consistently paying very high amount to their management. So if someone is really getting compensated here, it's not the shareholder
4. Their growth has been staggering if you compare to the 2010 numbers, but since 2018 their revenue has increased from $21B to $28B, that's 15% growth only, not 40% (although I imagine 40% could be possible as they introduce enough new models in the future and all are success)
So if everything clicks for Tesla and other car brands are unable to react, which would be quite spectacular, it could be a double, triple over the next 10 years (that's 10-13% return). If only one thing does not work well, that can be a -50% to -90%.... Very speculative in my opinion, all based on staggering growth forever :-)
that is what is baked in the price - downside is huge too.
Sven can you talk about BABA? it's such a good value now but worried about the drama
We don't expect dividends before they go to Mars lol xd 28:30
Thanks a lot for this
Hi Sven, may I know why the total sales figure 2018 which available from the annual report of 2020 and annual report of 2019 is different? Thank you in advance.
Please do an analysis on ATAX . Their dividend yeal is over 11 percent! And their debt to asset ratio is also very low. Why isn't this stock more expensive? Am I missing something ?
the excel that you have shared with the link is wrong, check it. The line 7/13/18 are not correct
has been updated already, thanks!
I see very important to mention Kroger's partnership with Ocado and online sales growth of more than 100%.
Thanks for the video will take a look to cisco analysis!
Please do!
Merry Christmas Sven!
Thank you for the Kroger refresh!
Happy holidays!
I didn't understand what the Terminal multiple ?
Lets see how that call on Unilever works out.
Like the ghost of Christmas yet to come,
that 'Sell' may come back to haunt you Sven.
Hi Sven, in your Tesla valuation you remove all cash flows and keep only the last one with the explanation that Tesla won't pay dividends. For me this is something I have never seen before. I'm kind of puzzled over this calculation. If I remember correctly in your previous video you also calculated stocks where the company pays no dividend and didn't remove the cashflows of years 1 to 9. Also, how to handle the case where a company does not pay either nothing at all or 100% of cash flows as dividends, but has a payout ratio of lets say 50%? Would be glad if you could shed some light on this. Many thanks!
all depends on the company, there are cash flows, and free cash flows:-))
Can you explain why you exclude consistent dividends and consistent shares buyback in this value calculation? Imo they are SUPER important when looking at this kind of behemount. +2% dividends and -4% shares outstanding play out BIG on the long run, wouldn't it?
it should all be the same, no matter what you use - buybacks = Earnings growth
Hey Sven! Are you loading up on BABA? what are your thoughts? Buy, Sell, Hold?
Just wondering what your perspective is, and this video could get you some Juicy views.
let me call Xi
@@Value-Investing haha! Damn that's savage, but true enough, that summarizes the entire situation
Thanks for all your work, Sven. Appreciate it, also gave you a 'hat tip'/link on my latest SA article.
Kroger intrinsic value 24,55, stock price 31,53 - fairly valued???
Amazing stuff, love your humor
25:28 who benefits most from technology is an interesting thought makes me immediatley think about Henry the navegator A Portoguese who invented Deep sea navegation what lead to new trade routes to Asia while Portugal and while Henry's ideas led to an golden age in Portugal The Dutch took the spice trade over after an century from the Portoguese simply because of its close proximity to the North and Baltic sea what use to controlled by the Hanseatic league the main market for the Spice trade.
yes, but Kroger already has the spices:-)
@Sven: Thanks for the great xmas gift! Love to get more every week :)
Happy holidays!
Sven thanks 4 the analysis. Why r u only considering dividends as a benefit to investors? If a company is a growth stock and as u phrased it invest every dym in growing the business, than the company shear price is higher. Why doesn't high shear price counts as return to investors?
then the growth will be faster and reflected in the long-term price - with UL, there isn't
Hi Sven,
You heard me and made video💪💪👍. So nice of you 😀
Of course!
@@Value-Investing Hi Sven, Why are you interested in Nepal? Have you been to India anytime?
Thx and Merry Christmas to You too, Sven ! 🙂🎄🎉
Can you talk about a chinese electric car company called NIO? I invested in it a few months ago and its skyrocketed +52% value
Ugh Unilever was the absolute worst client I had when I was in consulting. Never met so disrespectful people before or ever since. I don’t even like to think back of the time I spent with their tax teams.
As for Tesla, I think the prononciation is not the only thing that Elon gets wrong. 😂
Happy Christmas Sven and looking forward the videos in 2021!
Never worked for Unilever but I am Dutch and worked for other major Dutch Corparations I can sort of feel what you are saying they maked you feel little and small by constant nagging about little things what are not so related to the bigger picture and contiuos keep talking Dutch even thou there are non Dutch speakers in te room.
I too worked for UL as a consultant. I had a completely different experience and found most people quite friendly. It always comes down to people when you interact with them.
Although they have a tendency to think they are too big to fail and there is a sense of laziness which i found extremely frustrating.
What are your thoughts on Intel? Watched your previous video on it but Apple have created their own chip and Microsoft may start in house chips since then?
time will tell - you can 't know the future:-)))
Learning a lot from this vdo
Glad to hear that
So kroger looks like a pretty good buy by all metrics, except 1. If you look at the charts on a 15 year scale their stock price never really goes up, I mean not by much more than inflation. I am new to investing and I keep hearing about kroger being undervalued but I just cant imagine a company with no plans to offer any more services making enough money to move the bar. Am I wrong?
have to make a deep analysis on it:-)
Happy holidays everyone!
A question for you: Why Buffett doesn't pay any dividend to create a cash flow for his investors ?
1-BRK is not the same as 20 years ago and he says it himself. They can't grow too much to beat the market. He suggests s&p index fund because if he can't pass the index so why people choose him? (He literally says these in the letters btw)
2-Yes he is buying back stocks or investing in new businesses. But BRK has huge huge cash, they can do investments and buyback stocks and distribute a 2-4% dividend easily !
3- Why he is limiting BRK with book value ? There are many companies that you need to value with book value but their book value is 3-4. Why he is limiting BRK book value 100%-120% ? He can easily announce dividend and in this zero interest rate times,more and more people would buy BRK shares knowing it's gonna have good returns in the future even with the book value 150%-200%.
4- He always thinks shares as people use them to do grocery. If I'm the owner of share i need to sell my shares to create a cash flow. But I wouldn't, if I received a dividend payment, even paying some tax.
It would be great if u make a new video about BRK. Thanks
Thank you for de "morningstart" wab p. 🤜🤛
Sven, are you so long Tesla? 40% growth rate year on year while the last 2 years, they didn't even grow 20%... Also only way Tesla is increasing free cash flow is due to increasing outstanding shares.
Sales in europe are dropping, competition is catching up on ev's. Apple may enter EV market as well.
But I cannot blame you putting those crazy numbers as Tesla's share only go up.
Great analysis on Unilever and Neste
of course not!
Great analysis Sven as always. Merry Christmas.
It would be interesting to get your view on tobacco stocks like PMI or BAT.
just search on youtube Sven Calrin Altria
Hello Sven, I really like your videos and thank you for the Excel templates!
Is there a reason why you don´t take the numbers directly from the annual reports?
I have tried to calculate the intrinsic value for two companies in Norway. that is EQNR (Equinor) and VEI (Veidekke).
I have tried to use FCF and dividend yield in the formula and I feel like I get the wrong value (most likely me doing something wrong).
If it's not to much to ask can you make a video on calculating the intrinsic value for those two companies?
Again thank you for the amazing videos and free templates!
it is too much, I am not researching Norway at the momen :-(
Great Christmas Present! Thanks Sven, all the best to you and yours!
Same to you!
Great work. I also had lots of problems with estimating the future growth.
Happy Christmas. Feliz Natal Sven
Happy holidays Sven. Great content
Happy holidays!
Bought Kroger, going nicely. Nestle beaten down from CHF 104 TO 98.5. Hopefully in the longer run will come back up to give 6% overall. Any negative news on nestle?
I am not following Neste :-(
Merry christmas Sven... ty for all... still missing a Stocks Intrinsic Value on alibaba because drop 12% and its getting cheap (im bought 225 :D)
He showed intrinsic value on ali baba on another video.
intrinsic value dont help when chinese party thinks they have to do an example of. see the documentation china: where billionaires vanish.
Should I consider the amount of stocks into the intrinsic value analysis?
depends on what is the input!
29:45 I think Sven is trolling talking well about Tesla